Author(s): Jurgen Klein; Mathijs Van Ledden; Henk Van Den Brink; Niels-Jasper Van Den Berg; Pieter Roos; Suzanne Hulscher
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Storm surge forecasting; EOF analysis; North Sea Storm Surge Atlas; Hindcasting
Abstract: Current storm surge forecasting is often carried out with detailed com puter m odelling. These m odels are accurate, but also com puter intensive with long calculation tim es. Also, the forecast horizon is short and the possibilities for scenario assessm ent are lim ited. Recently, a Storm Surge Atlas for the North Sea was developed. The Storm Surge Atla s for the North Sea uses a new and innovative m ethod to predict storm surges in the North Sea area and it provides quick insight of storm for five to ten days ahead. The Storm Surge Atlas m atches the pressure fields from an ensem ble of twenty weather forecasts to a large pre-calculated database. The pre-calculated storm surge found in the database is used for the current storm surge forecast for the entire ensem ble of weather forecasts. This research focuses on the validation of the Storm Surge Atlas by hin dcasting sixteen historical storm s. The sim ulated water levels are com pared to observed water levels at different locations along the North Sea coast. A com parison is m ade for the peak water levels and duration of the storm surge. Prelim inary results show that the Storm Surge Atlas is able to reproduce the peak water levels from the historical storm s. Especially large scale weather system s which cover a large area of the North Sea are reproduced well. Smaller scale weather system s or effects due to local geom etry are not always captured by the Storm Surge Atlas.
Year: 2015