Author(s): Kristopher Lloyd Furio; Samuel Francisco Tiongson; Anne Jeanette De La Rosa; Roy Anthony Luna; Richmark Macuha

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Keywords: Soil Moisture Accounting; HEC-HMS; El Nino; Climate Change; Water Resources

Abstract: The focus of this paper is assessing the impacts of El Nino events and climate change on water surface availability in a Philippine watershed, aiming to align water management practices with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 6.4. SDG 6.4 emphasizes two key aspects: (1) increasing water-use efficiency across all sectors (SDG 6.4. 1), and (2) ensuring sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater (SDG 6.4. 2) to address water scarcity. El Nino events, characterized by significant disruptions to regional precipitation patterns, and the ongoing effects of climate change can severely alter hydrological cycles, reduce water availability, and exacerbate drought conditions in watersheds. This study uses the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) method to model soil moisture dynamics and estimate water availability, using historical meteorological data, streamflow records, and regional and local data. Calibration against historical streamflow data ensures model accuracy, and sensitivity analysis determines the influence of key hydrological parameters -- such as rainfall, evapotranspiration, and soil properties on water availability predictions. By integrating these methods, the study offers insights into potential reductions in soil moisture and water availability during El Nino events, compounded by climate change effects. These findings underscore the necessity of developing sustainable water resource management strategies, aligned with SDG 6.4, to enhance water-use efficiency (SDG 6.4. 1) and ensure sustainable freshwater withdrawals (SDG 6.4. 2), thereby mitigating future water scarcity risks

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P1991-cd

Year: 2025