Author(s): Yiqi Yan; Zuoqiang Han; Yuqiong He

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: The Yellow River Basin; Climate change; Natural runoff; Precipitation

Abstract: The change in natural runoff is highly relevant to total river flow dispatch and water resource utilization in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Based on the annual mean temperature and total precipitation records from 70 meteorological stations during the period 1961–2020, the impact of climate change on the natural runoff of the YRB is investigated using Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and Bivariate Wavelet analysis methods. Results show that the annual mean temperature over the whole YRB has increased by 0.33℃decade-1 during 1961–2020, with a warming rate of more than 0.40℃decade-1 observed in its northern part. The annual total precipitation has increased (decreased) by 10-20 (20-30) mm decade-1 in the northwest (southeast) YRB. The result of M-K test shows that there are abrupt variation in temperature and natural runoff, especially in the 1980s and 1990s, and the decrease in natural runoff is closely tied to the increase (decrease) in temperature (precipitation), especially for the period 1993–2020. The bivariate wavelet coherence analysis further suggests that the decrease in the natural runoff, which has persisted over the past 60 years, is primarily driven by precipitation reduction, rather than regional warming. In the stage of rapid warming, the inter-decadal influence of precipitation on natural runoff gradually changes to the influence of inter-annual fluctuation. The finding contributes to providing an important scientific basis for evaluating the optimal allocation of water resources in the arid and semi-arid areas under the background of climate change.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P2028-cd

Year: 2025