Author(s): Joaquin Calderon Cahua; Isidro Pilares Hualpa; Roberto Alfaro-Alejo; Percy Ginez-Choque; Carlos Pilares Calla And Wilber Laqui Vilca

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Soil water; Evapotranspiration; Climate Change; Huancane Basin; SWAT

Abstract: In order to assess the surface water supply in the Huancane River basin under the influence of climate change during the years 2025–2055, this study was conducted in the highlands of Peru. The SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model was utilized for this purpose; it was calibrated and verified using observed flows from the Puente Huancane hydrologic station over a period of 13 and 9 years, respectively. In the future evaluation of flows, data from the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were accepted, from the GCMs (Global Climate Models) MIROC6 (Japan) and CNRH-ESM2-1 (France), a product of CMIP6, to which the data scale was reduced in "Statistical Downscaling". Consequently, a "good" fit of the SWAT model in the basin was obtained through calibration and validation. Regarding the flow, it projects a decrease in the dry season of -55.03%, translated to a flow of -2.52 m3/s. In the rainy season, contributions of 4.98% are projected, which is equivalent to a flow of 1.93 m3/s, concluding that the decrease in flow is equivalent to a loss of 0.08 m3/s per year.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P2142-cd

Year: 2025