Author(s): Neptune Yu; Ander K. C Chow; Terence Leung; Christopher J. Wong; Dickson T. S Tsui; Ivan N. F Wong

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Keywords: Extreme wind speed; Climate change; Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract: Projection of tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in Hong Kong was studied using wind engineering stochastic approach, which is the Monte Carlo Simulation, under different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, including the intermediate GHG emissions scenario SSP2-4.5 and very high GHG emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. 10,000 events were generated using Monte Carol Simulation to come up with various tropical cyclone tracks and characteristics. The extreme wind speeds at representative wind stations in Hong Kong due to these 10,000 number of stochastic-generated tropical cyclones could be determined. The increase in extreme wind speed due to climate change effects can also be determined when the change in tropical cyclone characteristics due to climate change is incorporated into the Monte Carlo Simulation.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P2073-cd

Year: 2025