Author(s): Hadir Abdelmoneim; Sameh Kantoush; Amirreza Tabataba Vakili; Mohamed Saber; Vahid Nourani

Linked Author(s): Hadir Abdelmoneim Moustafa

Keywords: Precipitation; Sea surface temperature; Teleconnections; UAE

Abstract:

In April 2024, Dubai experienced a catastrophic flash flood, leading to tremendous human and socioeconomic losses. Understanding this sudden flood mechanism is vital for preventing similar events, improving flood prediction, and enhancing adaptation strategies. In this context, this study focuses on the underlying drivers of extreme floods across the region, such as the influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the surrounding seas, the associations with large-scale teleconnections (e. g., North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) ) and the existence or absence of other factors. Additionally, the 2D rainfall-runoff-inundation model (RRI) was used to assess the effect of urbanization on flood damage. Our results revealed that the sea surface temperature (SST) of Arabian significantly increased, with values of approximately 1.2°C from 1974 to 2024 and approximately 0.5°C in April for the same period. Arabian SSTs play a significant role in amplifying these flood events because of their high temperatures and other factors, based on the Partial correlation test. The NAO also appears to be positively correlated, with values up to 0.3 in some parts of the network, among other teleconnections, with monthly precipitation in April from 1974--2024. In addition, flood inundation maps emphasize that urbanization increases flood risk. This study provides decision-makers a powerful tool for better understanding this region's response to climate change.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P1998-cd

Year: 2025