Author(s): Naomi Hanakata; Xuelu Wang

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Daptive Planning; Integrated Coastal Zone Management; 4D Planning; Climate Change Adaptation; Uncertainty

Abstract: As urban coastal zones face increasing pressure from climate change and socio-economic growth, developing robust, long-term adaptive planning strategies is essential for ensuring resilience. The objective of this research is to address the challenges of urban coastal zones by examining how multi-stressors and dynamic conditions shape planning uncertainties and by developing an adaptive framework that integrates multiple planning scenarios. This study moves beyond conventional planning approaches by treating time as a key planning parameter, enabling the incorporation of uncertainties into the planning process and facilitating the exploration of multiple, optimal outcomes. Coastal planning is inherently complex, requiring the consideration and negotiation of various interdependent factors that may be contradictory or mutually reinforcing. Establishing a structured framework that integrates these parameters, defines their interrelationships, and captures their evolving dynamics over time enables the development of adaptive, place-specific design proposals for the short-, medium-, and long-term future of urban coastal zones. By leveraging scenario planning and incorporating feedback loops that inform early-stage decision-making, this methodology enhances the adaptability of urban coastal designs while fostering more resilient and sustainable outcomes. This research highlights the importance of innovative planning methodologies in addressing uncertainties posed by climate change and other developments. The proposed approach offers significant contributions to both water engineering and socio-economic planning by framing planning as a continuous and adaptive process. Ultimately, this research advances the discourse on adaptive planning and climate change adaptation, equipping urban coastal areas with strategies to respond to evolving environmental conditions while supporting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P1802-cd

Year: 2025