Author(s): Dorota Miroslaw-Swiatek; Pawel Marcinkowski; Mikolaj Piniewski; Mateusz Grygoruk
Linked Author(s): Dorota Miroslaw-Swiatek
Keywords: SWAT model EURO-CORDEX climate projections floods Biebr
Abstract: Over the last decades observed climate change in Poland had a significant impact on the condition and functioning of the environment. Thus, it is crucial to analyze further future changes to be able to cope potential effects of changing climate conditions. In this study, we aimed to assess the impact of projected climate change on flood characteristics in the Biebrza Basin. We analyzed changes in flood characteristics using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the linear multiple regression model (LRM). We looked into projected changes for two future time horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using an ensemble of nine EURO-CORDEX model scenarios. Flood area and volume will slightly increase in future horizons. The greatest increase in flood duration (by up to 16 days) is projected for RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. It seems, that the expected hydrological conditions, both in the short and long term, will become more stable and improve the conditions for the development of wetlands.
Year: 2025