Author(s): Wei Jian; Diah Valentina Lestari; Edmond Yat-Man Lo
Linked Author(s): I Gusti Ayu Diah Valentina, WEI JIAN
Keywords: Compound flooding risk River delta Conditional probability Non-stationary framework
Abstract: The Chao Phraya River delta, home to the megacity of Bangkok, Thailand, faces escalating flooding risks with significant socio-economic implications. This study investigates the occurrences of compound flooding involving multiple flood drivers: river discharge, local precipitation, and coastal storm surge. We analyze the interdependence among these flood drivers through three distinct cases where each flood driver exceeds the annual 90th percentile. Our findings reveal a moderate correlation between discharge and precipitation, with concurrent extreme events being highly likely when either driver exceeds the 90th percentile thresholds. In contrast, storm surge shows greater independence from the other drivers, although elevated precipitation or discharge often coincide with storm surge extreme days. Further analysis of non-stationary variability in these dependences highlights the influence of climate variability. Our study can enhance understanding of the key mechanisms underlying compound flooding in the region and provide insights into the evolving flood risk landscape.
Year: 2025