Author(s): Annisak Laila Rakhmawati
Linked Author(s): Annisak Laila Rakhmawati
Keywords: Compound flooding hazard modeling SFINCS land subsidence climate adaptation
Abstract: Understanding the dynamics of compound flooding is critical for developing effective mitigation strategies in coastal cities vulnerable to multiple flood drivers. This study presents a hazard modeling approach for compound flooding in Pekalongan City, Indonesia, a region characterized by extreme vulnerability due to rapid land subsidence, intense rainfall, and frequent fluvial flood. Using a robust scenario-based framework, 19 flood scenarios were modeled with varying combinations of meteorological factors and land subsidence to quantify their individual and combined impacts on flood extents, depths, and durations. The results demonstrate that compound events involving multiple drivers produce significantly higher flood risks compared to single-driver scenarios. For example, a combined scenario with extreme rainfall, storm surge, and subsidence inundates 75% of the city, with water depths exceeding 3 meters and durations surpassing 72 hours. Land subsidence emerges as a critical factor, amplifying both the extent and persistence of flooding even under moderate meteorological conditions. The findings underscore the importance of integrating subsidence control measures into urban planning alongside conventional flood risk management strategies. This study offers a replicable methodology for analyzing compound flooding in similar coastal regions, providing actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. As the impacts of climate change intensify, the need for adaptive, multi-driver flood risk assessments becomes increasingly urgent to safeguard vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure.
Year: 2025