Author(s): Joaquin Vincent Calderon; Isidro A. Pilares-Hualpa; Carlos Pilares; Percy A. Ginez-Choque; Roberto Alfaro-Alejo And Wilber Laqui
Linked Author(s): Roberto Alfaro-Alejo, ISIDRO PILARES
Keywords: Flows Modelling Basin SWAT Huancane
Abstract: This study was carried out in the highlands of Peru, with the aim of evaluating the surface water supply in the Huancane River basin, under climatic influence in the period 2025 - 2055. For this purpose, the SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model was used, which was calibrated and validated in periods of 13 and 9 years respectively, using observed flows from the Puente Huancane hydrometric station. In the future evaluation of flows, data from the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were accepted, from the GCMs (Global Climate Models) MIROC6 (Japan) and CNRH-ESM2-1 (France), a product of CMIP6, to which the data scale was reduced in "Statistical Downscaling". Thus, obtaining as results in the calibration and validation a "good" fit of the SWAT model in the basin. Regarding the flow, it projects a decrease in the dry season of -55.03%, translated to a flow of -2.52 m3/s. While in the rainy season contributions of 4.98% are projected, which is equivalent to a flow of 1.93 m3/s, concluding that the decrease in flow is equivalent to a loss of 0.08 m3/s per year.
Year: 2025