Author(s): Haixing Gou; Chao Ma; Weiwen Liu; Ximeng Xu; Ruixin Zhang And Weiren Huang
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Coal-fired power phase-out water allocation Theil index reservoir operation uncertainty
Abstract: Decarbonization policy has promoted widespread deployment of clean energy and large-scale coal-fired power phase-out (CPP). The substantial decrease in water demand associated with the phase-out of water-intensive coal-fired power presents novel opportunities for mitigating water conflict, particularly in water-scarce basin. The broad impact of CPP-induced water demand reduction on basin water resources management is investigated through the proposal of a research framework centered around a two-stage water resources management model. This model aims to uncover the adaptive response of water system to CPP and the associated synergistic benefits. The case study conducted in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) has demonstrated that adaptive reservoir operation can effectively achieve a new equilibrium characterized by enhanced benefits among water supply, power generation, and ecological considerations under CPP. The overall water satisfaction rate in the YRB is estimated to increase from 81.8% in 2020 to 83.8% by 2035. Additionally, hydropower generation will improve by up to 0.18TWh, ecological suitability will consistently maintain at a high level, and the downstream ecological water replenishment will witness an increase of up to 0.302 billion cubic meters. The runoff uncertainty will affect the benefits of adaptive reservoir operation under CPP. Specifically, the water conserved by CPP will concentrate on external water supply in low inflow, whereas the water benefits will shift towards hydropower generation and ecological replenishment inside the river in high inflow. The proposed framework serves as effective tools for adaptive water resources management in response to CPP, promoting the water resources sustainability under decarbonization policy.
Year: 2025