Author(s): Matthijs Bos; Joost Buurman; Jaap Flikweert
Linked Author(s): Matthijs Bos
Keywords: Flood protection standard flood risk risk optimisation adaptation pathways climate change robust decision making
Abstract: To address the anticipated rise in sea levels, Singapore's national water agency PUB has engaged Royal HaskoningDHV to conduct a comprehensive flood risk assessment and recommend optimal flood protection standards. Projections from the Centre of Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) indicate that mean sea levels could rise by up to 1.15m by 2100 and about 2m by 2150, with extreme scenarios suggesting rises of 4 to 5 meters due to transient events like high tides and storm surge (MSS, 2023). This study evaluates potential economic and social risks and explores the benefits of various adaptation measures to achieve an optimal protection standard. Royal HaskoningDHV employs the Global Flood Risk Tool (GFRT) for a comprehensive flood risk assessment, using a five-step framework: hazard calculation, damage assessment, risk visualization, measure design, and cost-benefit analysis. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach and Monte Carlo Analysis are integrated to address uncertainties and optimize the timing of interventions. The combination of GFRT, DAPP, and Monte Carlo Analysis provides detailed insights into risk, uncertainty, costs, timing of investments, and benefits of adaptation strategies. This integrated approach supports flood risk analysis and enhances the economic evaluation of investment strategies, ensuring long-term economic benefits and reduced immediate flood risks. The framework harmonizes pathway creation, economic evaluation, and probabilistic assessment, offering valuable insights for the efficient adaptation of Singapore’s coastlines. This innovative framework aims to ensure Singapore remains safeguarded against rising sea levels and can adapt to climate change.
Year: 2025