Author(s): Hossein Tabari

Linked Author(s): Hossein Tabari

Keywords: Flood Socioeconomic risk Hazard Exposure Vulnerability

Abstract: Floods are among the most economically disruptive natural disasters, with their impacts intensifying due to the dual pressures of climate change-induced hazards and the expansion of human settlements and infrastructure in vulnerable areas. Despite their importance, the intricate dynamics of exposure and vulnerability -- particularly in the context of socioeconomic development -- remain underexplored in existing research. This study examines the global evolution of flood risk by considering hazard, exposure and vulnerability, utilizing hydrological simulations, land-use data, and socioeconomic indicators. Results reveal substantial spatial variability in flood risk profiles across IPCC regions, driven by differing contributions of exposure, vulnerability, and hazard changes. Under sustainability scenarios, exposure and vulnerability account for 45% of flood risk changes, whereas in high-emission scenarios, this contribution decreases to 32%, with significant regional variations. These findings emphasize the critical role of socioeconomic factors in shaping future flood risks and highlight the necessity of incorporating exposure and vulnerability into comprehensive risk assessments to support targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies.

DOI:

Year: 2025