Author(s): Makoto Shimomura; Kuniaki Miyamoto
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Event chains; Simulation; Database; Hazard map; Mt. Merapi
Abstract: To forecast a disaster is to have a clear perception of the possibility and the process of uncertain coming disaster. To understand the possibility and the process, we need to recognize all of possible events and the sequences. Such possible event-sequences can be identified by establishing a database of event-chain simulation results. The database will show all of possible processes of disasters, possible event-sequences. Therefore, we need to find current situation on such sequences. That is, to utilize the database, effective monitoring is a crucial issue. If we will find standing point from monitoring on possible event sequences, we will evaluate next or next step of disaster, and we will be able to prepare a ‘quasi-real time hazard map’. In this study, we try to build up a database by conducting event-chain simulations on pyroclastic flow and lahar at Mt. Merapi, and we also try to demonstrate some examples of ‘quasi-real time hazard maps’ by employing simple monitoring result.
Year: 2018