Author(s): Dirk Fleischer; Arne Arns; Jurgen Stamm

Linked Author(s): Jürgen Stamm

Keywords: Storm surge; Dunes; Coastal erosion; Statistical modelling; Sea level rise

Abstract: Accelerated Mean Sea level rise has a significant impact on the shape of the future coastline. For example, increasing hydrodynamic loads (higher water levels and waves) on the coast promote the erosion of beaches, dunes and cliffs. Increasing costs for coastal protection and interventions in the ecosystem are among the most severe consequences. Coastal protection dunes of the Baltic Sea prevent landward flooding and the recession of the coastline due to extreme water levels and swells (e.g. during storm surges). However, the required resilience of these structures depends not only on the height of the water levels, but also on their temporal course (duration, abundance). The presented, recently started ResCAD research project (Resistance and Climate Adaptation in Dune Systems) aims to develop two stand-alone planning tools for relevant authorities: a stochastic storm surge generator and a statistical dune erosion model. The comparative analysis from (Hydro-morphodynamic numerical model (HMN-model), site-specific observation data and the storm surge generator enables the description of the erosion volume by an empirical-statistical dune erosion model. This can be used, among other things, for planning construction measures to preserve the dunes and ecological habitats (e.g. by sand nourishment). In consultation with the relevant state authorities, more reliable estimates of the event-related and long-term development of the coastal protection dunes can be derived in this way.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-6009-1_57

Year: 2022