Author(s): Claudio Iuppa; Roberta Somma; Carla Faraci
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: Ocean currents and winds can transport passive drifters, including human bodies, over large distances, complicating the reconstruction of shipwreck events. In the Mediterranean Sea, irregular migration has led to numerous shipwrecks followed by delayed and spatially dispersed body recoveries. This study makes use of Lagrangian drift modelling to reconstruct shipwreck locations and dates from recovery data, and conversely to predict potential recovery areas from known shipwreck events. Simulations were performed using the OpenDrift framework with the Leeway module, driven by Copernicus Marine Service oceanic and atmospheric data. Backward simulations were applied to a real case involving five bodies recovered in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea in 2024 and a documented shipwreck along the Tunisia-Sardinia route. The results identify coherent spatio-temporal convergence zones, demonstrating the potential of stochastic drift modelling as a practical tool to support forensic investigations and maritime incident reconstructions.
Year: 2026