Author(s): Mojtaba Naghdyzadegan Jahromi; Alireza Gohari; Ali Torabi Haghighi
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Water deficit; CMIP6; Evapotranspiration; SSP2-4.5; SSP5-8.5; Finland; Climate adaptation
Abstract: Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural water deficits is essential for evaluating the sustainability of crop production in Finland amid climate change. This study quantifies historical and projected water deficit volumes and deficit days using a daily water balance model applied across Finnish croplands. The model integrates high-resolution observational data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI, 1981–2014) with CMIP6 ensemble projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (2015–2100). Strong agreement between FMI observations and CMIP6 historical simulations (r ≈ 0.73 for deficit volume; r ≈ 0.74 for deficit days) validates the model’s ability to capture spatial and temporal patterns. Historically, deficit volumes are highest in southern and western agricultural zones, with deficit days averaging 40–55 annually. Future projections reveal divergent trajectories. Under SSP2-4.5, national deficit volumes increased moderately from 2026 onward, with ratio changes relative to the historical baseline (1981–2014) reaching 1.15–1.3 in southern regions and 1.35–1.45 in eastern northern Finland by mid-century periods, before slightly decreasing to 1.1–1.35 by 2086–2100. Under SSP5-8.5, ratios escalate more rapidly, from 0.95–1.35 in early periods (2026–2055) to 1.3–1.6 by 2056–2070, and 1.5–1.9 by 2086–2100, with northern and eastern areas showing the largest proportional increases. Deficit days rise from 48 to 50 under SSP2-4.5 (fluctuating between 50–55 during 2030–2089) and to 61 under SSP5-8.5, with southwestern regions exhibiting the most significant changes. These trends indicate intensifying water stress, particularly post-2050, posing risks to potato cultivation and other crops. Adaptation strategies, including enhanced irrigation efficiency, drought-tolerant varieties, and northward cultivation shifts, are recommended to maintain productivity.
Year: 2026