Author(s): Luis Garrote; Paola Bianucci; Alvaro Sordo-Ward

Linked Author(s): Luis Garrote de Marcos

Keywords: Climate change; Mediterranean basins; Uncertainty analysis; Water availability

Abstract: This study presents a high-resolution hydroinformatic framework to assess the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on water availability in Mediterranean basins. The approach integrates detailed geospatial information on river networks and reservoirs (capacity >5 hm³) with hydrological simulations from the ISIMIP3b dataset, which includes runoff from two global hydrological models (H08 and CWatM) driven by five global climate models under historical and three future emission scenarios. Water availability is computed using the WAAPA model, which simulates reservoir operation, environmental flows, evaporation losses, and reliability-based water supply at monthly resolution. The modelling framework evaluates three major sources of uncertainty: emission pathways, climate forcing and hydrological model structure under different water management assumptions. For each management hypothesis, defined by demand composition, reliability criteria, and ecological flow requirements, a set of 40 simulations is performed. Long-term trends are analysed using 40-year moving windows, enabling the assessment of temporal evolution and variability under multiple plausible futures. Results show the relative contribution of each uncertainty source, with management assumptions dominating model structural uncertainty. The platform demonstrates the capacity of hydroinformatics to handle complex, data-intensive simulations and to support robust, climate-resilient water planning in the Mediterranean.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/iahr.proc.hic2026.31

Year: 2026