Author(s): Francesca Padoan; Giulio Calvani; Alexandra E. Knoblauch; William Wagner; Giovanni Decesare; Paolo Perona

Linked Author(s): Paolo PERONA

Keywords: Brown trout; Metapopulation dynamics; Habitat suitability; Dispersal modelling; River restoration; Freshwater conservation

Abstract: Human pressures and climate change are driving global biodiversity loss, with freshwater ecosystems being particularly affected. River restoration is crucial for conserving freshwater species, yet robust tools are needed to predict how habitat changes affect fish populations. Here, we present an improved metapopulation model that explicitly integrates seasonal flow discharges and Habitat Suitability Indices (HSI) related dependence to evaluate brown trout dispersal across a river network. By assessing the dispersal rate and the preferential direction based on the HSI, the model captures age-specific responses to altered flow regimes and barrier presence. Compared to a previous work in the literature, the HSI-dependent approach produces more differentiated both temporal and spatial distributions, particularly for juveniles and adults, and highlights the influence of flow alterations on trout connectivity. The proposed framework provides a first step towards a refined tool for assessing ecological outcomes of river restoration under varying hydraulic conditions.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/iahr.proc.ise2026.abs.310

Year: 2026