Author(s): Hongtao Li; Takuji Waseda; Yoshihiro Niwa; Takehiko Nose; Tsubasa Kodaira; Yasushi Fujiwara

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Keywords: Mirai; WAVEWATCH III™; Ensemble wave forecast; Arctic Ocean

Abstract: With the receding of ice in the Arctic in these several decades, the interest in exploiting the Northern Shipping Route (NSR) has increased to reduce the freight transportation time, fuel consumption and emission. Nevertheless, the harsh environmental conditions there require high-quality weather forecasts to plan human activities in the high-latitude region. In this study, we focus on the short-term prediction of waves in Arctic to support the research vessel Mirai 2025 expedition. For this purpose, five ice products provided by different agencies and ECMWF wind data were utilized to drive the state-of-the-art wave modelling community tool WAVEWATCH III™ to predict the wave conditions in the Arctic Ocean. The simulation results show that ice concentration plays an important role in determining wave conditions. Statistical analysis of ensemble wave height prediction reveals significant spread. Comparative analysis of the wave forecast with satellite altimetry data indicates a noticeable discrepancy. This suggests that there is a pressing need for accurate ice condition projecting before forecasting waves satisfactorily in ice-infested waters. The present effort lays a foundation for future work to improve WAVEWATCH III™ further.

DOI:

Year: 2026