Author(s): Jingrui Xu; Wenjun Lu; Raed Lubbad; Harvey Goodwin; Sveinung Loset
Linked Author(s): Raed Lubbad
Keywords: Ice shelf calving; Iceberg; Finite element method; Fracture; Thin and thick plate theory
Abstract: The fronts of Antarctic ice shelves are increasingly vulnerable to wave-driven erosion, which undercuts the ice shelf and creates unstable overhangs. As the notch deepens, the overhanging ice slab collapse due to its self weight. This process is termed as the front collapse of an ice shelf. A similar process occurs in icebergs, where wave action carves notches that weaken the ice body and can ultimately trigger collapse. This study addresses a practical question: for a given ice slab’s thickness, how far can the overhanging slab extend before fractures happen under its own weight? In this paper, we employed a combined theoretical–numerical framework to address this question. We revisit the thin-plate formulation originally proposed by White et al. for iceberg failure, identify and correct errors in the derivation, and validate the revised expression against finite-element (FE) simulations. To reduce artificial stress concentrations introduced by boundary conditions in thick-plate models, we introduce a surrogate modeling approach that mitigates these effects. Using this surrogate, we fit the numerical results to the theoretical predictions and derive a simple formula for the critical length at which an overhanging ice slab is expected to fail due to self-weight. From a practical standpoint, our results provide a rapid first-order tool for assessing whether an ice-shelf overhang is at risk of collapse.
Year: 2026