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Coupling a Hydrological Model and a Crop Growth Model to Predict Crop Yield Under Climate Change in the Haihe River Basin

Author(s): Suhui Shen; Yangwen Jia; Cunwen Niu

Linked Author(s): Jia Yangwen, NIU Cunwen

Keywords: Hydrological model; Crop growth model; Climate change

Abstract: Food security is increasingly becoming the focus of global concern, and it is even more important in water shortage regions under climate change. This paper attempts to research the impact of climate change on the crop yield in the Haihe River Basin, a water shortage region of North China by coupling the distributed hydrological model WEP-L and the crop growth model WOFOST. An experiment on winter wheat in two successive years (2007-2008) was conducted in the Daxing Experiment Station, the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), located at the Daxing district, Beijing of China. The crop growth model was at first calibrated to get parameter values using the experimental data in the years of 2007 and 2008, and it was then validated using the output data of the hydrological model and the crop yield data of 1980 to 2000 in the Haihe Basin. For the distributed hydrological model simulation, the Haihe river basin was subdivided into 3067 hydrological simulation units and 35 management units (municipalities), and the comparison result of simulated and observed river flows showed that the simulation accuracy of the model was acceptable. Finally, the crop yield of 2010 to 2030 was predicted for the Haihe Basin under the climate change correspondent to IPCC scenario A1B, A2 and B1, which was provided by the National Climate Centre of China. This study can provide a reference to analyze the climate change impact on hydrology and food security in the water-stressed region.


Year: 2010

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