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The Probabilistic Solution of Dike Breaching Due to Overtopping

Author(s): Z. Alhasan; D. Duchan; J. Riha

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Abstract: This paper contains the results of the probabilistic solution of the breaching of a left bank dike of the River Dyje at a location adjacent to the village of Ladna near the town of Breclav in the Czech Republic. A mathematical model describing the overtopping and breaching processes was proposed so as to obtain the solution. With this model, the overtopping of a dike is simulated using simple surface hydraulics equations. Dike breaching commences with the exceedance of the erosion resistance of the dike surface. For the modelling of dike erosion, a simple transport equation was used with erosion parameters calibrated using data from past real embankment failures. The sensitivity analysis of involved uncertain parameters was carried out using the screening method. In order to achieve the probabilistic solution, the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was used to generate plausible sets of random values for the sensitive variables. These random values were derived from a multidimensional distribution. Typical phases of the dike breaching process due to overtopping were distinguished. The final results of this study take the form of probabilities for those typical dike breach phases.

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Year: 2016

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