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Implications of CMIP5 Derived Climate Scenarios for Discharge Extremes of the Rhine

Author(s): F. C. Sperna Weiland; M. Hegnauer; H. Van den Boogaard; H. Buiteveld; R. Lammersen; J. Beersma

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Abstract: In 2013 the IPCC published the 5th assessment report based on a new generation of global climate model simulations forced with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP’s). From these data KNMI constructed a set of four climate scenarios (van den Hurk et al, 2014). These scenarios tailored to the Rhine basin are used to assess the potential effects on discharge extremes in the river Rhine and their potential implications for flood protection design in the Netherlands. The assessment is conducted with the so-called Generator of Rainfall And Discharge Extremes (GRADE) which exists of a synthetic weather generator, a hydrological and a hydrodynamic model. Overall the instrument represents the probability of the observed discharge (extremes) well. According to all four scenarios (the probability of) discharge extremes in the Rhine will increase under future climate conditions.

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Year: 2016

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