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Estimating Probability of Dike Failure by Means of a Monte Carlo Approach

Author(s): R. Van Looveren; T. Goormans; J. Blanckaert; Kristof Verelst; Patrik Peeters

Linked Author(s): Toon Goormans, Kristof Verelst, Patrik Peeters

Keywords: No keywords

Abstract: The European Flood Directive 2007/60/EC requires Member States to assess the flood risk along their water courses and to take adequate measures to reduce this risk. Often flood risk maps are developed by only taking into account dike overtopping. However, floods can also be caused by dike failure. Not taking this into account underestimates the flood risk. This paper presents a method to estimate the probability of dike section failure, taking into account several failure mechanisms. The method follows a Monte Carlo approach, in which all relevant parameters for the hydraulic loads as well as for the considered resisting forces vary according to specific distributions. Both the loads and failure mechanisms are described using numerical models. This method has been successfully applied on various dike segments along navigable water courses in Flanders, and in the Periodic Safety Review of the nuclear power plant of Doel.


Year: 2016

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