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Some Considerations on Extreme Statistics of Storm Surge Height

Author(s): Masataka Yamaguchi; Yoshio Hatada

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Keywords: Typhoon-generated storm surge height data; Extreme statistics; Leastsquare method; Sensitivity analysis; Stratified sampling technique; Osaka Bay

Abstract: The return values and their standard deviations for typhoon-generated storm surge height measured at Osaka for a period of 94 years from 1902 to 1995 are estimated by using an extended version of Goda' s extreme analysis model based on the least square method, in which the candidate distributions are the Gumbel and Weibull distributions. Investigations are conducted as to the effects of factors such as the censoring rate and the number of years for the measurement on return storm surge height and its standard deviation. Main conclusions are that increase of sample size associated with lowering of the censoring point and extension of the measurement period are crucial to improving the accuracy and efficiency of the estimates and that an extreme analysis using the data stratified according to typhoon track does not necessarily produce more efficient estimates in this case.


Year: 1999

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