Author(s): Xiangyi Ding; Yangwen Jia; Qiong Lu; Yaqin Qiu; Haitao Zhang
Linked Author(s): Jia Yangwen
Keywords: The Hai River Basin; Precipitation change; Cause analysis; Fingerprint-based attribution method
Abstract: Precipitation is the main source of local water resources in the Hai River Basin which is one of the most water-stressed regions in China. It is of great significance for solving the problems of water resources and estimating future water resources situation as well as dealing with climate change in the basin to study the evolution mechanism of precipitation under changing environment and investigate possible causes of observed precipitation change. Based on the analysis of observed precipitation change and water vapor flux change in the basin during past 50 years, this paper qualitatively evaluates the impacts of weather systems and climate change as well as human activity on precipitation evolution in the basin, and quantitatively identifies the roles of different factors including natural variability of climate system, global warming induced by the emission of greenhouse gas, solar activity in the evolution processes of precipitation using the fingerprint-based attribution method, and thus finds out the possible causes of precipitation change in the basin. The results indicate that, the precipitation amount in the basin during past 50 years decreased, and the factor which may be responsible for the observed precipitation change is natural variability of climate system, rather than global warming induced by the emission of greenhouse gas or solar activity.