Author(s): Minglei Ren; Xiaoyan He; Jinchi Huang; Hui Li; Fan Wang
Keywords: Short-term rainfall forecast; Limited reservoir water-level in flood season; Dynamic control; Risk analysis; Zhangze Reservoir
Abstract: The traditional conception of reservoir flood operation usually pays most attention on preventing small probability flood event, the limited reservoir water-level is statically controlled in the designed flood control water-level, more water storage above the flood control water-level is not permitted in flood season. Consequently, many reservoirs produce plenty of abandoned water because of the constraint of designed flood control water-level in flood season, whereas there is no water for storage after flood season. This operation method pays more attention on the safety of flood control, but ignores the benefit of water conservancy of reservoir, the flood resources cannot be used effectively and sufficiently. Based on the new conception of the dynamic control of limited reservoir water-level in flood season, targeted at improving the efficiency of using water resources, a new real-time operation method which uses short-term rainfall forecast for carrying out dynamic control of limited reservoir water-level in flood season is proposed in this paper, and its possible risk associated with dam, upstream, downstream when the error of short-term rainfall forecast occurs is also analyzed. The proposed methodology is applied to a large reservoir in Shanxi province, China. Results show that in the premise of ensuring the safety of the dam, upstream and downstream, the dynamic control method of limited reservoir water-level in flood season can make the best of flood resources. The studied method can also be applied for the real-time operation of other large reservoirs, especially for the reservoirs that with excellent regulation performance and responsible for flood control in water shortage region.