Author(s): Zhongshun Li; Yongcan Chen; Dejun Zhu; Zhaowei Liu; Xing Fang
Keywords: Climate change; Oxythermal; Hucho taimen; Lake; Northeast Chin
Abstract: Climate warming would have a great impact on the water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) distribution of lakes in cold regions. It can have an effect on fish populations. To evaluate the effect of climatic change on coldwater fish habitat in cold regions of China, a fish habitat simulation model was developed. The fish habitat simulation model was developed based on the output of a deterministic, unsteady, one-dimensional, year-round lake water quality model (MINLAKE2012). Lake Jingpo in Northeast China was chosen as the represent lake. The coldwater stenothermal fish called Hucho taimen was selected as the indicator species. Constant Values Method and oxythermal habitat parameter (TDO) method were applied to identify the refuge habitat. Weather records for period 1980-2012 were used to represent past climate conditions. Future climate SERS-A1B scenarios were based on the output of the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM), CCCma CGCM3. 1 from the Canadian Climate Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma), and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, MIROC3. 2 developed in Japan. The simulation results show that under the future climate scenarios, the uninhabitable space in winter due to low dissolved oxygen in hypolimnion will decrease, the uninhabitable space in summer due to high temperature in epilimnion will expand. Total habitat depth in summer is projected to decrease up to 60% – 90% , which means highly probability of summer kill. It is projected that multi-year average value of ATDO3vb (highest average daily TDO3 over variable benchmark period) will have an increase of about 2. 5 °C, which means Hucho taimen juvenile survival rate will decrease about 35% . In the extreme warm year, the Hucho taimen juvenile survival rate will decrease to 9. 0% .