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Flood Forecasting with Uncertainty Using a Fully Automated Flood Model Chain: A Case Study for the City of Kulmbach

Author(s): Md Nazmul Azim Beg; Jorge Leandro; Punit Bhola; S. Konnerth; Kanwal Amin; Florian Kock; Rita F. Carvalho; Markus Disse

Linked Author(s): Maria Rita L. M. F. Carvalho

Keywords: Forecasting; Uncertainty; Calibration; Validation; Hydrological and hydraulic modelling

Abstract: Real time flood forecasting can help authorities in providing reliable warnings to the public. This process is, however, non-deterministic such that uncertainty sources need to be accounted before issuing forecasts. In the FloodEvac project, we have developed a tool which takes as inputs rainfall forecasts and links a hydrological with a hydraulic model for producing flood forecasts. The tool is able to handle calibration/validation of the hydrological model (LARSIM) and produces real-time flood forecast with associated uncertainty of flood discharges and flood extents. In this case study, we focus on the linkage with the hydrological model and on the real-time discharge forecasts generated.


Year: 2018

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