Author(s): Ngoc Duong Vo; Quang Binh Nguyen; Huy Cong Vu; Philippe Gourbesville
Linked Author(s): Philippe Gourbesville
Keywords: Climate change; RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; Kon-Ha Thanh river; SWAT
Abstract: Climate change is a complex problem and becoming the leading challenge for humankind in the21st century. It will affect almost aspects of human well-being. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts on water resources and proposed solutions to respond to climate change is urgent and necessary. This study applied the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and GIS (Geographic Information System) technique to simulate water flows due to the impact of climate change. The models were applied for Kon–Ha Thanh river catchment, located in Vietnam where is considered as one of the countries most affected by climate change. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated well using daily flow data with the NashSutcliffe and correlation coefficients are 0.77 and 0.88, respectively. Two scenarios from Vietnamese government (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used to analyze the variation of stream flow in three periods: 2016-2035,2045-2065, and 2080-2100. The results show that the flow in Kon–Ha Thanh rivers will vary complicatedly and severely under the impact of climate change. This flow may increase roughly 150.8% in flood season and reduce around 11.8% in dry season. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates that there are the changes in the flood dynamics as well as the hydrological shift of this region. This study presents an operational approach to integrate the results from the impacts of climate change to flood protection measures that would be useful in sustainable planning and devising resilience strategies.