Author(s): Pedro Arboleda; David Zamora; Carolina Vega; Nicolas Duque; Erasmo Rodriguez
Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging; Hydrological ensemble; Uncertainty bounds
Abstract: Hydrological ensembles have gained importance for prediction and forecasting in water cycle variables. In spite of this, the relevance of the individual models in the ensemble is not usually established, in terms of the ensemble structure (i. e. their members) and the performance this structure exhibits through different climatic conditions (intrannual variability, for example). This analysis accounts for the uncertainty in the structure of the models and their responses (e. g. outputs), in comparison to the observed data. In this regard, the research here described attempts to determine the incidence of the ensemble members built for each month of the year, in the prediction of daily flows, through the use of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. Moreover, using BMA calibrated parameters as inputs, an uncertainty analysis is carried out for the calibration period, and in monthly average terms, obtaining finer uncertainty bounds. This analysis was implemented in the Sumapaz River basin, part of the Magdalena Cauca Macro-Basin (MCMB) in Colombia. Results showed differences in ensemble structures and performance according to its original performance criteria, and better results when using a monthly BMA for the uncertainty analysis.