IAHR Document Library

« Back to Library Homepage « Proceedings of the 1st International Symposium on Water Syst...

The Study of Flood Forecast Based on Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

Author(s): Xiao Yang; Wu Xin; Ye Wang; Deqin Cao

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: No keywords

Abstract: Ensemble forecast which makes up for the lack of the single forecast, is a shift from deterministic forecast to probabilistic forecast. Based on the above ideas, this paper takes the Jianghua as study basin,and uses the ECWMF ensemble forecast precipitation data to drive the flood forecasting model for flood forecasting. The result shows that the ensemble forecast flood forecasting can get the range of runoff simulation. And 75% of the process line Q<sub>75<sub/> is used as a deterministic process line which can simulate the flood well. The method not only ensures the accuracy of flood forecast, but also prevents the period of flood. Reliability of the application of ensemble forecast in flood forecast is proved.


Year: 2018

Copyright © 2022 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research. All rights reserved. | Terms and Conditions