Author(s): Hossein Bonakdari; Hamid Golabi; Bahram Gharabaghi
Keywords: Climate Change; RCPs Scenarios; Comfortable Climate; Human
Abstract: In recent decades, the heat island effect due to rapid urbanization in major cities combined with the effects of the global climate warming has led to significant changes in the urban weather condition. The study of meteorological data and application in planning for residential and tourism centers is essential, and the climatic condition has a vital role in people's comfortability. This study aims to forecast the long-term effects of climate change on the comfortability of the Quebec City's climate, Canada. The second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was used under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios including RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and by applying statistical downscaling model (SDSM) weather generator, minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), average temperature (Tmean) variables and using the change factor method, relative humidity (RH) variable were projected for the periods 2027-2050 and 2057-2080. Then, using the projected variables and Mahani and Givoni indicators, the appropriate months for human physiological comfort were determined in the next two periods and compared with the baseline period (1982-2005). The results indicate that the city will be in a cold range in the autumn and winter in the following two periods at night and day. In addition, in April and September, it will be in comfort range at daytime with cold nights, and in June, July and August, it will be in comfort range at nighttime, with days in warm range.