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Uncertainty in Flood Extent Estimation Due to Uncertain Parameters

Author(s): M. Werner

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Keywords: Flood mapping; Flood risk; Uncertainty; Monte carlo simulation; Models; Parameters

Abstract: Predictions of the extent of flooding due to design events are a basic element of flood risk analysis. These can be made using hydrodynamic models subject to a design discharge event. Data on flood events of the magnitude of the design flood event are often scarce, and these models are thus calibrated using smaller events. Data on the extent of flood is, moreover, often not available. Rather, the available data is limited to discharges and levels at gauging stations, possibly located at considerable intermediate distances. In this paper uncertainties in the prediction of flood extent are explored in the context of a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework. Extent of flooding is predicted using a1D hydrodynamic model and GIS based flood extent mapping procedure. The models are calibrated using three significant flood events, and subsequently applied in predicting the flood extent limits of a major flood event.


Year: 2001

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