Author(s): E. Doukakis
Keywords: Global warming; Sea level rise; Erosion; Historical retreat; Inundation
Abstract: Among the most dangerous impacts of global warming are the sea level rise and the enhanced erosion of the sandy shorelines. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change regularly issues assessments and probable scenarios on climate changes, which give the official guidance to the researchers to estimate future impacts on coastal regions. One of the most sensitive and environmentally important areas in northern Greece is the Porto Lagos lagoon and the adjacent Vistonis Lake. Comparing air photographs taken in 1945 and 1991, the historical retreat of the shoreline can be deduced. Assuming sea level rise scenarios of 50 and 100cm the permanent inundated areas can be estimated both along the seashore and lakeshore. Using various depths of closure, the Bruun model can be applied along the shoreline only, so as the erosion can be computed. Adding all the above three different models, the total retreat of the today shoreline can be assessed for this century long. The results are impressive since the area would almost disappear if the scenarios become a reality.