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Ice Forecasting Model Based on the Variable Fuzzy Synthetic Analysis

Author(s): Baosen Zhang; Honglan Ji; Jing Xu; Aoda Zhang; Xuejun Bian

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Abstract: The ice cold disaster is a relatively serious natural disaster in the Inner Mongolia reach lies of Yellow River, and the accurately and efficiently ice condition forecasting is a great and profound significance for flood control and ice prevention. Based on analysis of all kinds of factories influence ice flood, with the variable fuzzy synthetically analysis as the core, use the variable fuzzy theory and combine with method of two elements contrasting definition the index weight, determine the correlation extent predictor with the statistical correlation analysis, this paper presents an ice forecasting model and is applied in Inner Mongolia section forecasting the breakup date. The cases study results show that the proposed model is more accurately and easy to be used. This model has played an active role in prevent ice cold disaster in the Inner Mongolia reach lies of Yellow River.


Year: 2012

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