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Advances in Break-up Date Forecasting Model Research in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River

Author(s): Guoming Gao; Guoqing Yu; Zili Wang; Shuxia Li

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Abstract: The ice break-up in the upper Yellow River usually happened rapidly, caused disasters and was difficult to forecast, and the break-up period is the outbreak phase of the ice flood disaster in the NingXia-Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River. The accuracy of the current break-up date forecasting methods and models could not meet the requirements of ice flood control. The accurate forecast of the break-up date is very important for ice flood control of in the NingXiaInner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River. This paper reviews the research process of the breakup date forecasting model in the NingXia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River by citing many models. The models were summarized as 5 kinds which include indicators method, empirical correlation method, statistical models, mathematical models, and artificial neural network models. The applicability and uncertainty of each model was pointed out after detailed analyzing the model. Moreover, we investigated the new technologies, such as data mining and wavelet analysis which were used to build the break-up date forecasting model in the recent years. Finally this paper presents the direction and trends of the researches on the break-up date forecasting model in the future according to the uniqueness of the NingXia-Inner Mongolia reach.


Year: 2012

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