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Method for Human Error Quantification in Ice Management Systems

Author(s): Marat Kashafutdinov; Ove Tobias Gudmestad; Sveinung Loset

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Abstract: Investigations of major accidents show that humans are involved in all life phases of most technical systems, from design through construction, operation, management, maintenance to decommissioning offshore. Humans tend to make errors and are generally more complex than technical systems and it is difficult to predict the types of errors that we may commit. This paper describes an approach for quantification of the human errors and their influence on the basic events in relation to Ice Management systems. A short description of the risk model is given. The risk model is described by Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model having defined in the fault tree the basic events and the risk influencing factors (RIFs influencing on the basic events). The RIFs, in turn, have uncertainties regarding assessed value. The uncertainties might be described by Beta distributions. Simple simulations of the described method have been performed.


Year: 2012

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