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Improving Decadal Coastal Geomorphic Predictions

Author(s): Robert J. Nicholls; Jon French; Barend Van Maanen; Helene Burningham; Andres Payo; James Sutherl; Mike Walkden; Gill Thornhill; Jenny Brown; Fay Luxford; Jonathan Simm; Dominic E. Reeve; Jose M. Horrillo-Caraballo

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Keywords: Coastal morphology; Coastal management; Climate change impacts; Modelling

Abstract: The i COASST project is developing new and improved methods to predict decadal coastal geomorphic evolution with the overall aim to improve erosion and flood risk management. The approach is based on a framework that develops a system-level understanding of the coast and combines: (1) new methods for system-level analysis and mapping of coast, estuary and inner shelf landform behaviour; (2) well validated‘bottom-up’hydrodynamic and sediment transport shelf models to investigate inner shelf-coastal interactions; and (3) model compositions formed of existing or new‘reduced complexity models’of selected coastal landforms and processes that are suitable for multiple decadal length simulations. The ultimate goal is to simulate coastal evolution under a range of possible scenarios that explore uncertainties in future decadal-scale coastal response, including the effects of climate change and management choices. This paper highlights key aspects of the i COASST project and outlines the current state of progress.

DOI:

Year: 2015

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