Author(s): Diah Valentina Lestari; Wei Jian; Edmond Yatman Lo

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Prediction of compound events; CORDEX SEA; Support vector machine; Metro Manil

Abstract: Interaction between extreme wind and precipitation leads to stronger impacts in a coastal urban area compared to the same event on a non-urban coastal area. This study investigates atmospheric conditions linked to compound wind and precipitation (CWP) extremes for Metro Manila, the Philippines, a coastal megacity that is prone to extreme weather. We utilize a CORDEX-SEA model to identify CWP days along with nine underlying meteorological variables for linkages to these events. A composite analysis of each meteorological variable over the identified CWP days covering the historical period (June-September, 1975-2005) indicates enhanced convection and moisture convergence from the South China Sea (SCS) along with a stronger southwesterly wind anomaly. An anomalous cyclonic motion over northern SCS also supports the CWP occurrence in Metro Manila based on a k-means clustering analysis. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) is further implemented to predict CWP days under the present climate (June-September, 2006-2023), which yields a highest f1 score of 0.73 corresponding to 91% of correctly predicted CWP days, indicating good predictive capability.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/978-90-835589-7-4_41WC-P1695-cd

Year: 2025