Author(s): Xiaolong Zhang; Faxing Zhang; Liyuan Zhang
Linked Author(s): Faxing Zhang
Keywords: Dam-Break Flood Inversion Remote Sensing Imagery Disaster Prediction and Assessment
Abstract: In the early hours of June 6,2023, the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine collapsed following an explosion, causing catastrophic downstream flooding. This event represents the most severe dam failure in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Due to the dam's early construction and limited publicly available parameters, key data on downstream subaqueous riverbed topography remain inaccessible. While satellite remote sensing enables rapid acquisition of topographic data for the downstream floodplain, it cannot directly capture underwater riverbed profiles. Existing dam-break flood models often rely on raw digital elevation model (DEM) data, neglecting riverbed depth, and few studies have comprehensively examined how riverbed depth influences the evolution of dam-break floods across downstream channels and floodplains. This study integrates readily available above-water topographic data with satellite imagery of the dam breach development to construct a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Kakhovka Dam collapse. By assuming varying downstream riverbed depths, we simulate the flood propagation in the lower Dnipro River basin. Comparisons between simulation results and satellite remote sensing data reveal a significant influence of riverbed depth on flood evolution. Consequently, in emergency modeling of dam-break scenarios, downstream riverbed topography should be considered a critical sensitivity factor. Calibration of underwater riverbed profiles can leverage pre-flood remote sensing imagery or historical flood hydrological data for improved accuracy.
Year: 2025