Author(s): Dongmin Lee; Hyunsoo Kim; Minseong Kim; Hyun-Han Kwon
Linked Author(s): Hyun-Han Kwon
Keywords: Climate Change Water Supply Reliability Multivariate Quantile Delta Mapping (MQDM) GR4J rainfall-runoff model
Abstract: This study evaluates the future water supply reliability of the Soyanggang Dam in South Korea under climate change. By employing multiple regional climate models (RCMs) and advanced modeling techniques, future inflow projections were derived and analyzed to assess the dam’s capacity to meet water demands in changing climatic conditions. The methodology includes bias correction using the Multivariate Quantile Delta Mapping (MQDM) approach to address systematic biases in precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration data. Hydrological modeling was performed using the GR4J rainfall-runoff model, which was calibrated with observed data to simulate future streamflow accurately. The water supply reliability assessment compared projected inflows against anticipated water demands, demonstrating critical periods of potential vulnerability. The findings provide valuable insights into the dam’s operational resilience and emphasize the importance of adaptive water management strategies to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, ensuring sustainable water resources for the future.
Year: 2025