Author(s): Emils Brazovskis; Athanasios Angeloudis; Lindsay Beevers

Linked Author(s): Lindsay Beevers

Keywords: Tidal energy sensitivity analysis uncertainty quantification resource assessment numerical modeling

Abstract: We consider the challenge of quantifying uncertainty in regional-scale coastal ocean models in the context of tidal energy resource and impact assessment. The limited data availability on spatial parameters like bathymetry and bed friction, in combination with complex terrain, makes resource assessment results sensitive to assumptions made within numerical models. Model calibration to measurements of flow velocity and elevation works to reduce the associated levels of uncertainty, however, such measurements are often scarce and available for limited time periods. A multi-scale nested channel network approach is introduced for quantifying the expected level of sensitivity to spatial parameters in numerical modelling. A simplified 1D model of channels in series and parallel is first employed. This approach is then extended to idealized and realistic 2D domains to develop a framework for assessing model sensitivity, quantifying uncertainty to give a more complete understanding of tidal array performance, and helping to pinpoint critical areas where uncertainties greatly affect model outputs. Such analysis is instrumental in de-risking the tidal energy sector and guiding future measurement campaigns to optimize data collection strategies.

DOI:

Year: 2025