Author(s): Andres Olaf Santana Soto; Ramon Dominguez; Maritza Arganis; Roberto Vazqez; Eliseo Carrizosa; Silvia Gonzalez
Linked Author(s): Ramón Domínguez
Keywords: Real reduction factor Extreme rainfall Flood risk estimation
Abstract: To estimate design floods for modeling inundations, it is essential to analyze the storms associated to different return periods. For instance, the precipitation linked to a 100-year return period does not align with the average of point precipitation for the same period, as these point rainfalls do not necessarily occur on the same day. Particularly in large basins, it is few probable that, during a single event, precipitation at various locations will correspond to the same return period. Consequently, the areal average of precipitation derived from point measurements tends to overestimate design rainfall. To address this, a correction factor known as the Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) is applied, which is crucial for converting point estimates of extreme precipitation into representative values for spatial domains and serves as a key tool in flood risk estimation. This study examines the behavior of the ARF in the Valley of Mexico basin as the area increases, taking into account that a denser rainfall network reduces the uncertainty in determining the mathematical model that describes such behavior.
Year: 2025