Author(s): Supriya K C; Sahand Ghadimi; Ali Torabi Haghighi
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: Climate-induced variations in thermal regimes can influence hydrological dynamics, crop growth and productivity, and ecosystem stability. As one of the largest components of water balance, agricultural water consumption is highly impacted by such thermal variations. Shifts in temperature patterns affect germination, flowering, and maturation processes, which can either enhance or constrain productivity depending on crop type and regional climatic conditions. Therefore, understanding the spatiotemporal evolvement of thermal condition is essential for evaluating the impacts of climate change on crop development. This study analyses the long-term dynamics of growing degree days (GDD) across Finland from 1961 to 2023 to quantify spatiotemporal variations in heat accumulation and their implications for crop development. Daily mean air temperature data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided at a 10-km spatial resolution, is analysed using an analytical framework. GDD values were computed with a base temperature of 5 °C and accumulated through each growing season to capture temporal trends, regional variability, and changes in thermal thresholds relevant to key crops such as potato faba bean, barley, oats, and wheat. Trend detection using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall is employed to test the significancy of GDD variations throughout the record. The findings suggest rapid transformation in the thermal condition over Finland, reshaping agricultural timing and productivity potential. This spatiotemporal assessment provides a robust foundation for modeling climate adaptation strategies and supports sustainable management of northern agro-ecosystems under warming climate.
Year: 2026