Author(s): Fulya Islek; Md Arman Habib; Md Salauddin
Linked Author(s): Md Salauddin
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: The present study examines long-term changes in ocean-atmosphere variables, including Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and Sea Level Anomaly (SLA), over Ireland and its adjacent marine areas from 1993 to 2024. ECMWF ERA5 for SST and MSLP, and satellite-derived SLA data were utilised to analyse the spatiotemporal trends. Results show a distinct warming trend in the mean SST reaching 14.6°C. MSLP exhibits a slight north-south gradient, ranging from 1008.7 hPa to 1015.7 hPa, while SLA varies from 3.3 cm to 6.4 cm, displaying a consistent increasing trend. These results indicate Ireland is influenced heavily by global warming, with increases in SST contributing to a rise in sea level, while decreases in MSLP. The acceleration of SLA in recent years indicates climate change is having a greater effect on regional ocean-atmosphere dynamics, and has implications for offshore renewable energy potential and resilience of coastal infrastructure. In addition, a machine-learning (ML) predictive model based on Random Forest was considered for empirically mapping SLAs as a function of SST and MSLP variability. The predicted SLA values achieved an R2 score of up to 0.87 in selected years when compared to the observed data from the satellite altimetry.
Year: 2026