Author(s): Luis Garrote; Paola Bianucci; Alvaro Sordo-Ward
Linked Author(s): Luis Garrote de Marcos
Keywords: Climate change; Mediterranean basins; Uncertainty analysis; Water availability
Abstract: This work presents a high-resolution computational framework to assess uncertainty in climate change impacts on water availability in Mediterranean basins. The model integrates geospatial data on river networks and reservoirs (>5 hm³) with runoff simulations from ISIMIP3b, using two hydrological models (H08, CWatM) driven by five climate models under historical and future emission scenarios. Multiple water management hypotheses are simulated with the WAAPA model, yielding 42 simulations per case in 40-year moving windows. Results highlight the relative influence of emission scenarios, model structure, and management assumptions, demonstrating the potential of hydroinformatics for climate resilience assessment.
Year: 2026