Author(s): Vo Ngoc Duong; Philippe Gourbesville
Linked Author(s): Philippe Gourbesville
Keywords: Climate change; Fully distributed physically-based hydrological model; Flood modelling; Vu Gia Thu Bon catchment
Abstract: As shown in World Bank studies, with more than 70%of the population working in agriculture, inhabitants mainly concentrate at the coastal plain, Vietnam is one of the countries that are most heavily affected by the consequences of climate change. Especially, the impact of climate change is expected to be more serious at Vietnam central. In order to assess the impact of this phenomenon on flood aspect to local people, a flood map is established for this region. This flood map is constructed on the combination between a hydrological model (MIKESHE) and hydraulic model (MIKEFLOOD) .MIKESHE model which is calibrated and validated in twenty years with the Nash Sutcliffe and correlation coefficients could reach to 0. 82 and 0. 92, respectively, is used to project the change of river flow in the end of 21st century corresponding with 3 climate scenarios such as CCSM3. 0, MIROC-3. 2, ECHAM 5. The enlargement of flood plain due to the increase of flood flow is estimated via MIKEFLOOD model, which is calibrated and validated on typical actual flood event with the statistical index reach to 0. 92as R and 0. 83 as E. The variable scale of inundation area allows an operational approach for integrating between the climate change and the engineering design activities dedicated to flood protection measures and resilience strategies.